Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 70029.407218 74053.087504 78081.753823 82415.062256 86941.220874 91526.282364 96519.097530
2025-04-13 62848.860516 68944.567733 75225.570433 82171.748498 89628.791834 97384.310256 106050.505609
2025-04-20 58664.270196 66240.035595 74223.300237 83243.565143 93132.329207 103623.479438 115575.174675
2025-04-27 55505.647128 64211.207632 73558.584834 84309.351619 96299.451904 109227.166508 124185.704542
2025-05-04 52621.052611 62193.713886 72643.187668 84849.447560 98667.147585 113774.073316 131488.396244
2025-05-11 49874.889570 60115.931928 71464.422780 84908.274806 100332.072699 117405.720518 137664.189732
2025-05-18 47593.179939 58411.423125 70566.087164 85150.415928 102086.827182 121045.819663 143780.738643
2025-05-25 45498.834444 56797.651109 69657.451240 85272.923650 103611.648170 124353.139979 149468.210576
2025-06-01 44161.366511 55990.949176 69614.436413 86336.983361 106175.823125 128822.528188 156483.467135
2025-06-08 42297.294585 54462.227638 68636.537538 86221.637592 107292.239620 131563.444337 161459.872589
2025-06-15 41328.882590 53962.459416 68838.424363 87471.064521 109995.656582 136150.790304 168609.242874
2025-06-22 40175.430068 53179.157793 68649.366807 88207.402408 112054.925325 139961.830600 174844.159655
2025-06-29 38735.945795 52001.561656 67951.046047 88307.704626 113347.337294 142880.688309 180065.282864
2025-07-06 37304.909477 50782.054197 67155.341600 88248.575557 114416.874406 145518.327240 184953.924178
2025-07-13 36566.404616 50406.642396 67379.503425 89428.833823 116993.036076 149977.435068 192062.825873
2025-07-20 35859.547753 50039.349047 67587.284359 90568.357054 119509.007627 154367.155325 199109.602562
2025-07-27 34938.853467 49358.536191 67367.135459 91142.962834 121304.736767 157870.310912 205083.234402
2025-08-03 33842.507821 48408.604903 66768.491434 91205.806320 122435.032091 160540.734636 210033.139768
2025-08-10 32890.427787 47615.922019 66342.292381 91462.509561 123790.517474 163481.331397 215322.263572
2025-08-17 31934.308589 46785.408085 65837.878189 91592.349959 124965.442512 166187.470901 220323.347950
2025-08-24 31441.220671 46560.334484 66110.343507 92719.800371 127413.527196 170497.998619 227355.329941
2025-08-31 30465.052510 45646.394064 65446.242315 92597.592178 128234.033768 172746.705404 231796.527798
2025-09-07 30108.926242 45570.449767 65885.196270 93921.272778 130928.519039 177382.424131 239281.704778